Sustainability Analysis of Intervention Benefits
A Theory of Change Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3138/cjpe.70004Keywords:
sustainability analysis, theory of changeAbstract
Theories of change (ToCs) are models of how an intervention is expected to bring about changes in results of interest—the benefits. Robust ToCs spell out the conditions under which the intervention should “work,” that is, bring about or contribute to the desired benefits. But rarely does the ToC address issues of the future sustainability of the benefits from the intervention. The article discusses how ToCs can adopt a sustainability lens and, along with the intervention, become sustainability-aware, by undertaking a sustainability analysis, exploring the sustainability of the various key ToC elements, and seeking to identify and support sustainability mechanisms.
References
Breuer, E., Lee, L., De Silva, M., & Lund, C. (2016). Using theory of change to design and evaluate public health interventions: A systematic review. Implementation Science, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13012-016-0422-6. Medline:27153985
De Silva, M. J. D., Breuer, E., Lee, L., Asher, L., Chowdhary, N., Lund, C., & Patel, V. (2014). Theory of change: A theory-driven approach to enhance the Medical Research Council’s framework for complex interventions. Trials, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/17456215-15-267. Medline:24996765
Douthwaite, B., & Hoffecker, E. (2017). Towards a complexity-aware theory of change for participatory research programs working within agricultural innovation systems. Agricultural Systems, 155, 88 – 102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.04.002
Hunter, D. E. K . (2006). Using a theory of change approach to build organizational strength, capacity and sustainability with not-for-profit organizations in the human services sector . Evaluation and Program Planning, 29(2), 193 – 200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2005.10.003
James, C. (2011). Theory of change review: A report commissioned by Comic Relief. Comic Relief. Retrieved from http://www.theoryofchange.org/wp-content/uploads/toco_library/pdf/James_ToC.pdf
Kwasnicka, D., Dombrowski, S. U., White, M., & Sniehotta, F. (2016). Theoretical explanations for maintenance of behaviour change: A systematic review of behaviour theories. Health Psychology Review, 10(3), 277 – 296. https://doi.org/10.1080/17437199.2016.1151372. Medline:26854092
Lennox, L., Maher, L., & Reed, J. (2018). Navigating the sustainability landscape: A systematic review of sustainability approaches in healthcare. Implementation Science, 13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13012-017-0707-4. Medline:29426341
Maini, R., Mounier-Jack, S., & Borghi, J. (2018). How to and how not to develop a theory of change to evaluate a complex intervention: Reflections on an experience in the Democratic Republic of Congo. BMJ Global Health, 3(1), e000617. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2017-000617. Medline:29515919
Mayne, J . (2015). Useful theory of change models. Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation, 30(2), 119–142. https://doi.org/10.3138/cjpe.230. Retrieved from https://evaluationcanada.ca/system/files/cjpe-entries/30-2-119_0.pdf
Mayne, J. (2017). Theory of change analysis: Building robust theories of change. Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation, 32(2), 155 – 173. https://doi.org/10.3138/cjpe.31122
Mayne, J. (2019). Revisiting contribution analysis. Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation, 34(2), 171 – 191. https://doi.org/10.3138/cjpe.68004
Mayne, J., & Johnson, N. (2015). Using theories of change in the CGIAR research program on agriculture for nutrition and health. Evaluation, 21(4), 407 – 428. https://doi.org/10.1177/1356389015605198
Michie, S., Atkins, L., & West, R. (2014). The behaviour change wheel: A guide to designing interventions. London, England: Silverback Publishing. Retrieved from http://www.behaviourchangewheel.com/
OECD/DAC Network on Development Evaluation. (2019). Better criteria for better evaluation: Revised evaluation criteria definitions and principles for use. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/dac/evaluation/revised-evaluation-criteria-dec-2019.pdf
Rowe, A. (2019). Sustainability-ready evaluation: A call to action. New Directions for Evaluation, 2019(162), 29 – 48. https://doi.org/10.1002/ev.20365
Sala, S., Ciuffo, B., & Nijkamp, P. (2015). A systemic framework for sustainability assessment. Ecological Economics, 119, 314 – 325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.09.015
Sridharan, S., & Nakaima, A. (2019). Till time (and poor planning) do us part: Programs as dynamic systems—Incorporating planning of sustainability into theories of change. Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation, 33(3). https://doi.org/10.3138/cjpe.53055
Stein, D., & Valters, C. (2012). Understanding theory of change in international development: A review of existing knowledge. Justice and Security Research Programme & The Asia Foundation. Retrieved from http://www.theoryofchange.org/wp-content/uploads/toco_library/pdf/UNDERSTANDINGTHEORYOFChangeSteinValtersPN.pdf
UNDP. (2009). Handbook on planning, monitoring and evaluating for development results. Retrieved from http://web.undp.org/evaluation/handbook/documents/english/pmehandbook.pdf
Valters, C. (2014). Theories of change in international development: Communication, learning, or accountability? JSRP Paper 17: The Asia Foundation. Retrieved from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a089c5ed915d3cfd00040a/JSRP17.Valters.pdf
van Es, M., Guijt, I., & Vogel, I. (2015). Theory of change thinking in practice: A stepwise approach. Hivos ToC Guidelines. Retrieved from https://www.openupcontracting.org/assets/2017/09/Hivos-ToC-guidelines-2015.pdf
Vogel, I. (2012). Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development. UK Department of International Development (DFID). Retrieved from http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/wp-content/uploads/DFID-ToC-Review_VogelV4.pdf
White, H. (2009). Theory-based impact evaluation: Principles and practice. Working Paper 3: International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie). Retrieved from https://www.3ieimpact.org/sites/default/files/2017-11/Working_Paper_3.pdf
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2020 John Mayne
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Authors contributing to The Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation agree to release their articles under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 (CC-BY-NC) license. This licence allows this work to be copied, distributed, remixed, transformed, and built upon for any purpose provided that appropriate attribution is given, a link is provided to the license, and changes made were indicated.
Authors retain copyright of their work and grant the journal right of first publication.
Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
